The PS5 is coming--if it can be revealed. In terms of features, it will be able to display 8K-resolution games, huge modular solid-state drives, and silky-smooth motion with increased frame rates.
As for sales, they will be big. This is because it could face stiff competition from the Xbox Series X and Nintendo Switch Pro. However, some analysts are already seeing early buzz and predicting how popular it will be in the early stages of the console's lifespan.
Hideki Yasuda of the Japanese analysis firm Ace Economic Research Institute believes that the PS5 will sell at an unprecedented rate. According to Yasuda, both the PS5 and PS4 should ship 6 million units by March 31, 2021, and as PS4 production winds down, orders for the PS5 by retailers are expected to swell as the busy year-end season approaches. We can expect to see PS5s under quite a few trees this Christmas.
Furthermore, Yasuda expects another 15 million units to be shipped by the following year, March 2022, and given that the PS4 has sold over 102 million units worldwide, expectations for the PS5 are high.
There are no predictions yet from ARI as to how Microsoft's console will fare, and it is unclear how it will compare to the Xbox Series X. However, the relationship between the consoles (which one has the lower price, which console has more exclusive titles, etc.) will influence the final numbers.
One caveat should be noted. This analysis was actually published at the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic. Since then, several high-profile events like Mobile World Congress have been cancelled, and Sony has pulled out of PAX East due to coronavirus concerns.
Device launches have been postponed, and manufacturers such as Apple and Nintendo have scaled back production due to disruptions in their Chinese supply chains. If the epidemic continues to snowball, PS5 production could be disrupted, a major problem for Sony, which is trying to fill a large order for the console at launch.
Since the situation is still fluid, it is impossible to determine whether the international panic will have any impact on Sony's launch plans. However, we would be very surprised if Sony does not have a contingency plan in place for some sort of disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak.
This is a strong prediction by Yasuda, but will Sony live up to the hype and beat its rivals to this promising prediction, and with the tentative "Holiday 2020" launch date ticking away, we can't wait to find out.
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