Overall cell phone shipments for 2022 have been released. In fact, according to research firm IDC (opens in new tab), global smartphone shipments for the holiday season fell 18.3% y/y, the largest single quarter drop ever recorded.

It gets even worse. For the year as a whole, shipments fell 11.3%, the lowest in a decade, which IDC attributed to "declining consumer demand, inflation, and economic uncertainty."

However, there is a silver lining to these dismal numbers. Samsung increased its market share to 21.6% from 20% in the same period of the previous year, taking first place ahead of Apple. Apple, though, also increased its share from 17.3% to 18.8%.

In preparation for the Samsung Unpacked event on February 1, I asked IDC Research Director Nabila Popal about the Samsung vs. Apple rivalry and whether Samsung could really make a splash with the launch of its new Galaxy S23 series ...

The first piece of good news is that Samsung doesn't necessarily have to worry about whether consumers will be enthused about the high-priced Samsung Galaxy S23 Ultra, which like the S22 Ultra is said to be priced at $1,200, but there are rumors that it could be as low as $1,250.

"High Range is quite strong in this tough economic climate," Popal said in an email." Dating back to before the pandemic, devices priced over $800 have grown in market share by 7 percentage points over the past three years (since 2019)."

This is thanks to strong promotions, aggressive trade-in offers, and the growth of interest-free financing options from carriers and retailers. In a recession, premium phones are not so premium.

One reason Samsung has a slight advantage over other vendors is simply that competition among Android phone manufacturers has declined over the past few years. And Samsung is about to make a big statement in the best camera phone war with the Galaxy S23 Ultra, which is expected to feature a 200 megapixel main sensor. We have already seen a number of camera samples of the Galaxy S23 Ultra, and they look pretty impressive.

However, Samsung leads in megapixels with the S22 Ultra's 108MP main sensor in 2022, based on our Galaxy S22 Ultra vs Pixel 7 Pro and Galaxy S22 Ultra vs iPhone 14 Pro Max showdown, Samsung is in third place against Apple and Google in terms of overall image quality. Therefore, Samsung will have to do more than increase megapixels.

"The camera is an important feature for consumers, but I think it is now overdone," says IDC's Popal.

"Frankly, the megapixel parade now doesn't have much of an impact on consumers' purchasing decisions, whether they choose a brand or an operating system.

Mixed in with the doom and gloom surrounding cell phone sales is the fact that foldable phones now account for 5% of all smartphone sales. And in the United States, Samsung has 100% of that market with handsets such as the Galaxy Z Fold 4 and the more affordable Galaxy Z Flip 4. It is therefore no surprise that the company tops the list of best folding phones.

Other companies including Oppo, Honor, and Xiaomi are also rolling out foldable phones, but for now Apple seems to be on the sidelines. Despite rumors of a foldable iPhone Flip, nothing will reportedly be announced in 2023. In fact, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple will not launch a foldable until 2025 or later (opens in new tab). If anything, it seems that the foldable iPad may come first.

This leaves the door open for Samsung to create more distance with Apple.

"I think Samsung is in a better position than ever to take market share away from Apple because they have something that Apple doesn't have yet, namely the foldable," Popal says.

"Foldable phones have gained a lot of traction, especially in the last year, and are no longer just a marketing tool or a short-term fad or trend, but a very real and growing market segment that is gaining more and more momentum and consumer interest.

Popal attributes Samsung's market share gains in 2022 not only to the success of its S22 lineup, but also to the growth of its foldable devices.

The launch of Samsung's Galaxy S23 is clearly a big deal, especially the Ultra, which could turn some shoppers away from Apple if the camera lives up to the hype. Samsung's biggest opportunity, however, is with its foldable phones.

And with both the Galaxy Z Fold 5 and Galaxy Z Flip 5 on the horizon, Samsung could gain serious momentum against Apple this year.

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