It is not clear whether fans will want to buy more PS5 or Xbox Series X, but the supply chain seems to be betting on the PS5. Currently, Taiwanese electronics manufacturers estimate that Sony aims to produce 120 million PS5s over the next five years. If true, that would mean Sony expects the PS5 to sell even more than the PS4, which sold 110 million units over seven years.
The information comes from Digitimes, a Taiwanese publication that focuses on the business of electronic supply chains; Digitimes cites "sources in Taiwan's (Sony's) back-end supply chain," which is admittedly a bit vague. However, given the publication's extremely rigorous and fact-oriented nature, it is worth taking this report seriously.
There are two key elements to this report: first, Sony plans to produce 120 million PS5s over the next five years. The second is that Microsoft, according to the same source, plans to produce about 60 million Xbox Series X units over the same period.
There is a lot to unpack there, so let's start with the "120 million PS5" proposal. First, according to Digitimes, Sony plans to ship 10 million PS5s in 2020, which means that to reach the 120 million figure, Sony would have to ship an average of 27.5 million PS5s each year thereafter until 2025. This may not be a realistic figure, since the PS4 has sold fewer units than that over a longer frame. On the other hand, perhaps the PS5 will offer an experience that targets a broader audience than traditional console gamers. It is difficult to judge until the console is released, but even then, Sony could add any number of features later to attract new customers.
Another view is that Sony intends to ship twice as many units as Microsoft in the same time period; using Xbox One and PS4 sales as a template, this is not an unrealistic figure. The Xbox One took PS4 110 million units to sell and With 50 million units sold in roughly the same amount of time as it took PS4 to sell 110 million units, the "two PlayStations for one Xbox" model could still be viable in the future. Furthermore, Microsoft has shown a willingness to build an ecosystem, perhaps prioritizing cross-platform compatibility over Xbox Series X sales.
In any case, these are only initial reports, and much could change between now and 2025. However, assuming they are accurate, both Sony and Microsoft intend to sell more game consoles than before, and in a shorter time frame. With the rise of mobile and cloud gaming, this may be a risky strategy, but it is also worth noting that console gaming was in decline when the PS4 and Xbox One debuted. As always, the market wants what the market wants.
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